OPTIONS Expiry Report

This report is from May 2015, from a mostly FOREX expiry day

Options Statistics Report

The different commodity options expire on different days. This report is from a Friday at the beginning of the month, which is mostly an expiry for foreign currency options (British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, etc.)

  • We are looking at 41 commodities in our portfolio (as above, not all of them expired today)
  • Today (on the last day before expiry) $121 million traded hands
  • This is the important number when looking at value - the sum of all the options expiring today is more than $7 billion (seven billion US Dollar - this is a large sum of money)
  • Of these options, 80% - yes that is correct eighty percent - EXPIRED WORTHLESS!

What does "expire worthless" mean? It means the seller of the option keeps the money he was paid for the option and walks away. The BUYER of the option LOOSES all the money he invested in the option!
It means that 80% of the time the guys making the money in the market are the sellers of options, the buyers of options get something back only 20% of the time.
It means the probability of making money in the market hugely favors the sellers of options!

You can draw this statistics day after day, every expiry day, it will be in the range 70% to 92%.